Analyzing these data Hao comes to the conclusion that bitcoin is becoming increasingly rare, also because there are more and more BTCs lost forever, only 14.28% remain to be extracted, and more and more are those held by large owners
„With less Bitcoin left, and the emergence of more use, the Bitcoin price movement is obvious.
The point of departure of the reasoning is the so-called „Bitcoin Distribution“, that is the calculation of the percentages of BTC held by 13 „roles“ included in five main categories.
Categories and trend of Bitcoin according to OKEx
The first category is that of BTC still to be extracted, equal to 14.29%. They are Golden Profit not yet in circulation, but that will be in the next decades.
The second category is that one of the bitcoin preserved on the exchanges, equal to 12,62%.
The curious thing is that, considering that the BTCs still to be extracted do not exist yet and inevitably tend to zero, the category of the bitcoins preserved on the exchanges is in fact today that of the main role, after that of the not categorized BTCs.
It must be said however that these last ones are well the 58,89%, that is the overwhelming majority, but they are BTC of which we do not know with precision the typology of the owners, therefore on which it is not possible to reason more than much.
A very interesting fact, however, is the decrease in the percentage of BTCs held by exchanges, which started in 2020 with a downward trend that is becoming more and more pronounced. It is possible that this decrease is due to holders who buy bitcoins on exchanges and then withdraw them and keep them on their own wallets.
The third category is called „Bitcoin Zombies“, or lost bitcoins. These are BTC that formally on the blockchain still exist, but can no longer be moved because of the final loss of the private key of the wallet on which they are stored. This is 8,1% of the supply, and are in fact bitcoin now permanently out of circulation. In some ways they could be compared to burned BTC, now completely unusable.
Perhaps the most astonishing figure, however, is the one related to the fourth category, the BTC held by large entities.
For example the single Grayscale Trust holds 2.14% of the entire supply.
This is a single fund that, especially during 2020, has managed to rake a huge amount of bitcoins on the market (450,000), second only to those held by Satoshi Nakamoto himself (more than 1 million). The latter, however, are commonly included in the category of zombie bitcoins, since they have never been moved by their original wallets.
This fourth category also includes the 200,000 BTC still in the hands of the Plus Token scammers, the 166,000 inmates on the Mt.Gox exchange wallets failed in 2014, the 150,000 held by the Winklevoss twins, the 120,000 held by the hackers who stole them on Bitfinex in 2016, the 38,250 purchased this year by MicroStrategy and the 30,000 in the hands of Tim Draper.
If you add up all the BTCs included in the fourth category, you get 5.5% of the entire supply, which is less than the third category.
Finally there are 128,000 BTCs immobilized as collateral for the creation of 128,000 ERC20 tokens of wrapped bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain, and 1,105 immobilized in Lightning Network.
This fifth category is the one with the lowest volume, equal only to just over 0.6% of the supply.
Certainly the fact that almost 60% of the BTCs in circulation are not categorized today means that these arguments have only limited scope, but 5.5% of the entire supply in the hands of only seven owners, and 8% lost forever, makes it clear that they seem to remain more and more just the crumbs available to small investors.